2CHYP Weekly Commentary
Market Commentary 1/10/2020
2020 is off to a strange start. The Dow hit 29000 for the first time today and the leadership is very narrow. Just 7 large cap stocks drove almost the entirety of the Dow’s move. Expanding out to the S&P, gains are equally narrow with the 5 largest stocks dominating the capital gains.
Why is this happening?
I cannot say for sure, but my guess would be complacency. Geopolitical tensions have been greatly mitigated through resolutions in the major issues.
- Trade has calmed down with substantial progress toward a phase 1 deal with China
- Iran seems to have backed off which is allowing us to avoid or at least delay military conflict.
- Brexit appears to be resolving. There are many differing opinions as to what the ideal terms would be, but the level of uncertainty has been reduced. We now know approximately what is going to happen and people can plan accordingly.
- The Fed is in stability mode with no changes to the Fed Funds rate anticipated for a while.
As large caps are more international than small caps, it is unsurprising that the lessening of geopolitical risk would disproportionately be reflected in the big stocks.
We think this favoring of large caps is being amplified by a renewed public demand for ETFs. When the broad market keeps melting upward, ETF’s are seen as the ideal vehicle to allow one to passively participate in the gains.
We believe there will be a day of reckoning when the herd goes the other way, but as long as the good times remain, ETF’s look to keep growing. I continue to view market cap weighted ETFs as dangerous vehicles with the potential to systemically damage the market.
2CHYP Portfolio Snap Shot
2CHYP Performance: inception through end of December 2019
2CHYP Weekly Trade Confirmation Report
Important Notes and Disclaimer
The information contained herein is confidential, privileged and only for the information of the intended recipient and may not be used, published or redistributed without the prior written consent of 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corporation (2MCAC).
Material Market and Economic Conditions. January 2019: Tax-loss selling’s calendar expired and the government re-opened on January 25, 2019. The combined effect caused our shares to rise more than the broader markets. December 2018: Another Fed-Funds rate hike, unresolved US-Chinese trade, a partial government shutdown, and an exaggerated tax-loss selling season put extreme downward pressure on equity prices. All of these factors contributed to diminished liquidity and more significant share price declines in small cap/value issues; 2CHYP is focused on small cap/value issues, so our decline was significantly more precipitous.
Suitability. Information contained herein is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any particular person. It does not constitute a recommendation that any particular security or strategy is suitable for a specific person. We cannot determine whether the portfolio holdings presented are suitable for any given reader. Readers are encouraged to contact their financial professional to discuss the suitability of any strategies or holdings prior to implementation in their portfolio.
Forward-looking statements. Commentary may contain forward-looking statements which are by definition uncertain. Actual results may differ materially from our forecasts or estimations, and 2MCAC cannot be held liable for the use of and reliance upon the opinions, estimates, forecasts, and findings in these documents.
Holdings. The specific securities identified and described herein do not represent all of the securities purchased or sold for advisory clients of 2MCAC. It should not be assumed that investments in the securities identified and described were or will be profitable. We do not intend presentation of 2CHYP's holdings as a recommendation, but rather as a statement of historical fact. It should not be assumed that purchases and sales made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list.
Past Performance does not guarantee future results. Investing in publicly held securities is speculative and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Historical returns should not be used as the primary basis for investment decisions. Although the statements of fact and data is this commentary have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, 2MCAC does not guarantee their accuracy and assumes no liability or responsibility for any omissions/errors.
Benchmark Comparison. 2CHYP portfolio is compared to the I Shares REIT ETF (IYR) and Vanguard REIT ETF(VNQ) because these are common methods for investing in a portfolio of REITs and we view these as competitors or alternatives to 2CHYP. Both IYR and VNQ have fees that are factored into performance, while 2CHYP does not have a fee aside from trading commissions which are factored into performance. 2CHYP’s dividends are reinvested, while VNQ’s and IYR’s dividends are paid but not reinvested.
Expenses. Returns reflect the deduction of any transaction expenses. There are no costs or management fees charged nor deducted.
Calculation Methodology. Partial year return, unaudited. Dividends in 2CHYP are reinvested.
Conflicts of Interest. We routinely own and trade the same securities purchased or sold for advisory clients of 2MCAC. This circumstance is communicated to clients on an ongoing basis. As fiduciaries, we prioritize our clients’ interests above those of our corporate and personal accounts to avoid conflict and adverse selection in trading these commonly held interests.
Investment advisory services offered through 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corporation, a Wisconsin registered investment advisor.
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