On July 28, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased by 1.6 percent. By some definitions, two consecutive quarters of decline signal that the economy is in recession.

Rotation I have often thought that markets function under similar operating principles to those of a Galileo thermometer. Individual floats (stocks) rise or fall relative to their specific density and the density of the surrounding liquid (markets) as temperature...

Independent of the Market In the days leading up to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June 10th release of the May 2022 Consumer Price Index (CPI), investors crossed their fingers in hope that inflation had peaked and was beginning a retreat. No such luck; the BLS...

In our last communication, I profiled a couple of triple net lease REITs, suggesting they would be good defense in an inflationary economy. On May 4th the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points and effectively promised they would make similar moves in each of its next...

Interest Rates on the Ascent This past week’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s March 15-16 meeting confirmed that inflation is no longer perceived as transitory and efforts to bring inflation down quickly have moved to front and center.  After March’s 25 basis...